A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
